The OIV 2025 report: scarcity, shifting thirst, and trade under pressure

Last week I sat across from a friend who runs the wine program at a two-Michelin-star restaurant in Amsterdam. He did not talk about the wines on his list. He talked about what he can no longer get. Shrinking Champagne allocations, Burgundies disappearing toward the US, classics pricing themselves out. That conversation came back to me while reading the OIV 2025 report.

The Organisation Internationale de la Vigne et du Vin publishes annual global figures for vineyard area, production, consumption, and trade. The 2025 edition does not show a sector in crisis, but it does show one in transition. Three forces overlap: structural scarcity in production, consumers choosing differently, and trade routes straining under geopolitical weight.

Worth pulling the numbers apart, not to sound alarms, but to ask what they mean for anyone who buys and drinks wine.

Production keeps shrinking, and the shrink is structural

Global wine production landed at 227 million hectolitres in 2025. The third consecutive year below the historical average. Vineyard area also contracted to 7.0 million hectares, down 0.8 percent year on year. That marks the sixth straight year of decline.

Global production 2025

227 million hl

Global vineyard area

7.0 million ha (-0.8% YoY)

Global consumption

208 million hl (-2.7%)

Global exports

94.8 million hl / EUR 33.8 bn

US imports

EUR 5.5 bn (-11.6%)

Industrial use

approx. 30 million hl/year

Climate is the single biggest driver. France, Italy, Spain, Germany: almost every classical region cited the same combination of late frost, drought spells, and sudden flash rain as the cause of lost volume. A winemaker I spoke with in Burgundy described forty-percent yield gaps between neighbouring villages. That stops being anecdote at some point. It becomes pattern.

Scarcity carries one paradox: it protects price. With consumption falling, margins would normally compress. Because production is falling in step, the supply-demand balance holds, fragile but intact. For producers in classical regions, that is breathing room. For the buyer, it means an average bottle from a celebrated appellation will not get cheaper, weak market notwithstanding.

Drinkers are choosing differently, not pouring more

Global consumption fell to 208 million hectolitres, down 2.7 percent. In volume terms that is bad news. The pattern beneath it is more interesting.

In mature markets, younger drinkers consume less than their parents, but what they buy lands more often above the fifteen-euro mark. Premium over volume is no longer a marketing line. It is a purchase pattern that surfaces consistently in WMC, SVB, and IWSR data. OIV’s macro view confirms the same direction: fewer hectolitres, comparable value flows.

Geography is shifting too. Japan grows. Brazil grows. Portugal grows. Eastern Europe is creeping up. France and Germany continue to decline. The centre of gravity for global wine consumption is sliding away from where it has lived for the past fifty years.

That reaches the drinker directly. A wine list in Tokyo or São Paulo today is more ambitious than it was five years ago. The Dutch retail floor is changing too: less generic entry-level volume, more attention to unfamiliar origins and lower alcohol bottles.

For the US-specific reading, my recent piece on WMC, SVB, and IWSR data covers Gen Z, RTD growth, and the strategic moves at Diageo and Pernod Ricard. OIV provides the global frame around it.

Trade is straining, and the United States took the hardest hit

Global exports came in at 94.8 million hectolitres worth EUR 33.8 billion. Both numbers sit below 2024. The sharpest decline landed in the United States, where import value dropped 11.6 percent to EUR 5.5 billion.

Tariffs are the direct cause. European wine became more expensive for American importers, translating into lower volumes and thinner margins at origin. Burgundy, Champagne, and Tuscany feel it hardest because their premium tiers lean heavily on US distribution. A New York importer told me last month that for the first time in ten years he is actively shrinking his Burgundy allocations.

Trade flows are also moving. Asian markets are absorbing some of the loss, especially for Champagne and premium Italian. South American importers are building portfolios more seriously. Wine trade is becoming less transatlantic and more multipolar. That is not a short tariff cycle. It is a structural redistribution that will outlast any deal.

For the Dutch market that is good news. Importers here gain access to bottles that previously moved automatically to the US. Champagne allocations are loosening, particularly at growing grower houses reducing their exposure to American distribution.

Where the value lives for drinkers in 2025

A handful of regions are running against the trend. Brazil, New Zealand, South Africa, and Moldova posted recovery vintages in 2025 after earlier climate damage. Portugal continues to grow in both production and export value. Japan is developing a wine scene that is starting to draw international attention.

For the drinker, these are the zones where price and quality currently sit in the best balance. A red Dão from Portugal or a Fetească Neagră from Moldova offers complexity at a price point Burgundy no longer reaches. South African Chenin Blanc and New Zealand Pinot Noir hold quality at a level that classical regions have left behind in their pricing.

This is not an argument against classics. It is an invitation to widen the search inside whatever your per-bottle budget happens to be. A well-chosen Portuguese red beside a Burgundy makes the conversation at the table richer, not thinner.

Two observations the industry coverage tends to skip

OIV data is mostly read from the producer side. Production is shrinking, area is shrinking, so prices stay under control. Fine. That tells you very little about what consumers are actually doing. A 2.7 percent drop in consumption is structurally underweighted in industry analyses because it gets framed against the production drop. The relevant question for any drinker is whether in five years the same wine is still available at the same price. The honest answer in most classical regions is probably no.

Second observation: the “emerging regions” story. It tends to be presented as opportunity, and it is, for the drinker and for the Dutch importer. For producers in mature markets it is an underweighted risk. If Portugal, Moldova, and Brazil keep delivering quality at lower prices, the entry threshold of the entire category shifts downward. That undermines the premium strategy mature regions are leaning on right now. Nobody in the classical regions says it publicly. The conversation is happening behind the scenes.

What I take from the report

The OIV 2025 report confirms neither collapse nor recovery. It shows a sector reorganising itself: producers becoming more cautious, drinkers becoming more selective, trade routes shifting away from familiar paths.

For anyone who drinks wine, this is a good moment to look past the usual choice. Not on principle, but because the map in 2026 looks different than it did in 2020. Portuguese reds, Moldovan whites, South African Chenin, New Zealand Pinot. Each is an example of a sector redistributing itself. That is not a problem waiting to be solved. It is a change worth reading along with.

Sources

• OIV State of the World Vine and Wine Sector 2025 (Organisation Internationale de la Vigne et du Vin)
• Vinovistara OIV 2025 Report Highlights Resilience and Transformation in the Global Wine Sector
• FranceAgriMer / OIV European production figures 2025
• Companion US-market analysis: Wine market trends 2026