The list arrives and your finger slides to the second bottle from the bottom. Not the cheapest, because that feels stingy. Close to it, because the table is watching. Almost everyone does this, and a stubborn story attaches to it: the restaurant supposedly parks its fattest margin in exactly that slot.
That story is wrong.
What the research actually shows
Economists at LSE and the University of Sussex analysed 470 wine lists from 279 London restaurants. Their finding runs straight against the folklore: the second-cheapest bottle carried a lower markup than the bottles in third, fourth and fifth place. The steepest percentage markups sat around the middle of the list. An earlier wine-economics study found the same shape, with the cheapest bottle as the outlier at the bottom.
The numbers explain why restaurant wine startles you. In that London sample, the second-cheapest averaged around 275 percent over retail and the mid-priced wines around 305 percent. Call it roughly four times retail, with wide variation by venue.
Two caveats the study makes itself, and that usually vanish in the retelling. The comparison runs against retail prices, not against what the venue pays, so the real margin sits higher. And this is London, not Amsterdam or Maastricht.
There is one more thing. Sommeliers sometimes put something genuinely good in that second slot precisely because they know cautious guests land there. Then the reflex is a gift rather than a trap. You just cannot tell which of the two you are looking at, and that is the real problem: you are choosing without information, in a room where someone knows the list by heart.
The three questions
Never ask “what do you recommend”. It is too open, and the answer almost always steers upward. These three do real work, in this order.
1. “I’m around forty euro. What would you pick in that range?”
Say your number out loud, before anyone fills it in for you. It feels awkward and it is the most important of the three. You move the conversation from “what is good” to “what is good at this price”, and you remove the reflex before it fires.
If saying the number is too much: point at a bottle on the list and say “something in this area”. Works just as well.
2. “What do you drink here yourself?”
This is the question that pulls enthusiasm loose. Every list holds a few bottles someone in the building fought for, and they rarely sit at the front. Watch the tempo of the answer. If it comes back fast with a story attached, you are in good hands. A pause followed by a tidy suggestion means you are getting the house line.
3. “What moves fastest here?”
Especially by the glass. A bottle that sells stays open briefly, and you taste the difference. A list with ten wines by the glass in a quiet room makes a bottle from the day before yesterday a real possibility. Do ask when it was opened; that is a normal question, and the answer tells you at once how seriously they take it.
As a rule of thumb: conventionally stored, an opened bottle is at its best within one to three days and workable for a few days after. Venues with proper preservation equipment stretch that, though it varies by system and by wine. This is practice, not hard science.
What the answers are worth
Three quick, specific answers mean someone runs that list. Order more boldly than you planned.
Three vague answers mean something else, and that is no disgrace. In plenty of places nobody knows the list, because there is no sommelier and the list came from the supplier. There the questions cannot help you. Take the cheapest bottle from a producer you recognise, or drink beer. That is not a defeat.
And no, the cheapest bottle is not automatically bad. In both studies it carried the lowest markup of all. The price was never the problem. The reflex was.
Frequently asked questions
Is the second-cheapest bottle really the worst value?
No. The best research on this found the opposite: it carried a lower markup than the three bottles above it, and the steepest percentage markups sat in the middle of the list.
How much more expensive is wine in a restaurant?
Expect around four times retail. The London study found 275 percent markup on the cheaper bottles and 305 percent in the mid range, with large differences between venues.
Can I just state my budget?
Yes, and it is the most effective of the three questions. You can also point at a bottle and say “something in this area” if saying the number feels awkward.
How long does an opened bottle stay good?
Conventionally stored, it is at its best within one to three days and workable for a few days after. Sparkling fades faster, fortified wine lasts far longer. Restaurants using inert-gas preservation hold quality longer.
Sources
- LSE and University of Sussex (2021): The second cheapest wine, Economics Letters 470 wine lists from 279 London restaurants. Second-cheapest around 275 percent markup, mid range around 305 percent
- Decanter on that study: Second cheapest wine study
- Pathania, American Association of Wine Economists: Choose the Cheapest: The Case of Restaurant Wine Menus